I saw Deal or No Deal tonight for the first time. It may have been a rerun but I don't know. Howie Mandel is funny and quick on his feet, so that was a plus.
I just cannot believe that people will walk away from huge amounts of easy money in hopes of getting even more. After tonight's contestant turned down an offer for $299,000 and opened up the suitcase for $1,000,000, I shut the show off. Don't people see when they've beaten the odds? Apparently not — five suitcases unopened, and three of them were $300,000 or above.
I don't really care if there was a chance for $1,000,000. If someone were to put $299,000 in my hand, I would close my hand!
Actually, based on pure math, the contestant ought to continue the game because of the way the game is set up, since the banker's offer is always below the expected value of the remaining suitcases until the contestant gets down to only two of them. Some good and extensive info on the show and setup is available at wikipedia.
But you're right. Amazing how this show can get such high ratings. First Texas Hold'em, now this. We're a country addicted to gambling 🙂
I'm not sure how the incident you illustrated is about math. It's more like statistics and probability or game theory, which is harder than simple math. But from what I heard on an NPR story, it's more about risk tolerance than anything else.
I think I too would be happy with just getting $100K. Is that an option?
The expected outcome is all of the amounts divided by the number of suitcases. It is around $170,000; depending on the version of the game. Anyway, if someone is offered this amount or more, they have esentially won the game an should walk away. I know there is more to the risk theory, but that is one valid strategy.