This week saw the release of the first Presidential $1 coin. (I haven't seen one yet because my credit union didn't get them for the initial release. Waaah.) And, not surprisingly, there are lots of auctions for mint coin rolls on eBay.
Flexo over at Consumerism Commentary got a couple of the new coin rolls last week and might pick up a few more to list on eBay. Indeed, some of these rolls are going for well over face value on eBay. The interest here is people are snapping up the uncirculated rolls in the hope of capturing a numismatic premium later, either through resale of the uncirculated rolls later when they're no longer so easily available or through breaking open the rolls and slabbing the high-grade ones or the errors.
The uncirculated state and the possibility of a really high grade coin or an error coin are the main things these coins rolls have going for them. The mintage is very high, and the metal content is worth only a small part of the face value. Get the cash while you can!
I think it's really hard to time this kind of easy profit opportunity. (I hope Flexo does, though.) This is how I'd think it would play out (please leave a comment if you think otherwise):
- Pre-release (a few days before). Flexo actually got his first two rolls before the official release date. There were already eBay auctions for single coins for $20 or something like that. Really stupid stuff. The supply is really scarce, so if you have the goods you can get good money from someone who really wants it.
- Early initial release period (first day of release and a couple of weeks after). Anybody and everybody should have a good opportunity to get a roll or two for face value at their bank or credit union. Some folks who can't, and who want to capitalize on the initial novelty, may pay a premium to get their hands on a mint roll. The supply is getting larger, and the number of auctions on eBay goes up.
- Late initial release period (a couple of weeks after first day of release, until another four weeks have passed). The banks that didn't have them initially probably have them now, so the supply goes way up, and the number of people trying to sell the mint rolls for a markup hits a maximum. Buyers can be choosier, and so the markups that the sellers can charge goes down.
- Post initial release period (after the mint run has completed). All rolls are out. Right after the mint run ends the supply is about as big as it will get. It will decrease after that, but it basically isn't worth anyone's time to sell them because there's almost no profit opportunity now.
- Later. Most of the opportunistic sellers have dropped out, and coin dealers remain to sell the remaining mint rolls. With the new modern commonly circulated coins, though, the face value is well above the intrinsic value of the metal in the coins. (The $1 coins have only a few cents of metal in them.) So if you buy a mint roll for $25 and sell it two years later for $25.50, you've probably lost money after adjusting for inflation. (Although seventeen Denver mint rolls of state quarters were sold for $290 shipped — about a 60% premium after you take out fees and the like!)
Selling a mint roll of Presidential $1 coins now is like selling a PlayStation 3 on eBay two days after the first day of release. It's really hot only for a short time, and then it gets tepid really quickly.
There's probably some money to be made in the lower-mintage mint rolls but I'd wait until the US Mint is done flooding the market with them. 😉
In 1981, I bought a roll of '81-S Susan B Anthony dollars for five bucks a piece. Today, twenty six years later, they're worth (drum roll please,) $5 each in MS-62 condition. Just wait till the QVC-like channels get a hold of 'em. There will be platinum plated versions "on sale" for sixty dollars each. Those poor buyers will NEVER see a profit.